ISTANBUL, Oct. 20 (Xinhua) -- After halting its military offensive on the U.S.-backed Kurdish militia in Syria following a deal with Washington, Ankara expressed satisfaction with the bargain, but analysts said Turkey's objectives are far from having been achieved.
Ankara stopped its operation immediately after the deal was struck between top-level Turkish and American officials in Ankara on Thursday evening.
Washington guaranteed for its part that the Kurdish militia would withdraw within five days for Turkey to establish a safe zone of around 30 km deep into Syrian territory along the border.
Ankara got what it wanted in the negotiations, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told the press following the deal.
Turkey launched the cross-border offensive on Oct. 9 after the United States unexpectedly withdrew its troops in the operation area following a phone call between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump.
Turkey only partly achieved its stated objectives of the cross-border operation, Haldun Solmazturk, a former general, told Xinhua, noting the Kurdish militia remains essentially unharmed and that the safe-zone area is much smaller than planned.
"The U.S. stopped the Turkish offensive by exerting pressure over Turkey," he maintained.
On Oct. 10, President Trump said "Turkey knows where I stand," implying he would punish Ankara as he had threatened earlier in case the operation would go beyond what he considered "off limits."
Trump also expressed readiness the same day to mediate between Ankara and the Kurdish militia, known as the People's Protection Units (YPG) which Turkey sees as a terror group.
The operation may only be considered a success at the tactical level, Murat Bilhan, a former diplomat, told Xinhua.
He said the Kurdish militia forces are still present in some towns along the Turkish border.
Turkey has repeatedly said it would not tolerate a "terror corridor" along its border, vowing to eliminate the terrorism threat.
Until recently, Washington had voiced opposition to any Turkish operation against the Kurdish fighters and vowed to defend them in case of an attack.
The cease-fire will become permanent after the Kurdish militia completes its withdrawal by Tuesday evening, said U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who headed the U.S. delegation at the negotiations in Ankara.
The deal ensures that the Kurdish militia will get out of all this with minimum damage and continue to survive in the area further south of the around 30-km-deep safe zone, remarked Solmazturk, who chairs the Incek debates at the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute.
As per the deal, the United States agreed to immediately lift some symbolic sanctions it imposed on Turkey in the wake of the operation and not introduce any further sanctions on condition that the cease-fire be permanently established following the five-day truce.
Before the cease-fire was achieved, the Turkish military had captured dozens of Kurdish-held villages and two major cities near the border, namely Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn.
In the meantime, the United States and the Kurdish militia handed over some towns, including Qamishli and Ayn al-Arab near the Turkish border, to the Syrian and Russian military forces in an apparent bid to block the Turkish expansion.
The Kurdish forces are reportedly also present in the towns handed over, something vehemently opposed by Ankara.
"I don't expect the YPG to leave those cities," stated Bilhan, who is vice chairman of the Istanbul-based Turkish Asian Center For Strategic Studies.
The area between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, which lie in the middle part of the border, covers no more than 120 km of the 444-km-long border previously under the YPG's control.
Ankara's long-declared plan was to drive the militia 30-35 km away from the border and establish there a safe zone which would stretch all along the border from the Euphrates River to Iraq in the east.
Washington said the safe zone would cover, according to the deal, a 30-km stretch of land in the area the Turkish military took under control until the cease-fire took effect and that Ankara would be talking with Moscow and Damascus to expand the zone all along the border.
President Erdogan said on Saturday that he would take up this issue with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin when they meet Tuesday at the Russian resort town of Sochi.
Solmazturk expects the Sochi meeting to be a tough one for Erdogan, as Russia should be much annoyed at Turkey disregarding Moscow and Damascus by negotiating with Washington for a safe zone.
Neither analyst thinks Russia, a staunch supporter of the Syrian government, would agree to hand over the cities in question to Ankara.
"The Erdogan-Putin meeting is of key importance," Bilhan said.
Following the Turkish military incursion, Moscow said Turkish troops are entitled, based on an old agreement with Damascus, to enter no more than 5-10 km into Syria to fight terrorism.
For its part, Syria describes the Turkish operation as an occupation and violation of its territorial integrity.
Erdogan has suggested that the Turkish military would attempt to drive the YPG out of the cities under Syrian and Russian control if the militia would not quit them.
Before Ankara started the operation, the YPG had two self-proclaimed cantons along the Turkish border in northeastern Syria.
If the YPG would not have withdrawn by Tuesday evening, the Turkish military operation would resume as planned, Ankara has cautioned.
The deal between Ankara and Washington represents a turning point in the Syrian war, said Solmazturk.
Maintaining that Turkey has now chosen to side with the West while the West has been trying to disintegrate Syria, he said, "Russia would now act accordingly (against Turkey). By so doing, Turkey has lost the chance of playing an active role in Syria's future."
Under the Ankara-Washington deal, the YPG will hand over its heavy weapons, but it is not clear how it will be done and monitored.
For Bilhan, a strategic and definitive solution to the Kurdish problem can only be possible by a joint political effort of the four countries in the region with a sizeable Kurdish population, namely Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
