20 Mar 2020; MEMO: A group of Iranian scientists has warned that nearly 3.5 million people will die of the coronavirus in the country if strict quarantine measures are not implemented.
An Iranian news site published the report prepared by a team of researchers headed by Professor Ali Taqi Mashayekhi at Sharif University of Technology which includes three scenarios for the possible effects of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran.
According to the report, “the best scenario” sees the public’s application of quarantine and precautionary instructions to prevent the virus in its entirety. According to this scenario, “if the rate of self-isolation among the public reaches 80 per cent, the number of coronavirus infections in the first days of April will reach about 120,000 and the deaths 12,000.”
The second scenario predicts that if quarantine is not applied as required, and communication between the public continues at 50 per cent, it is expected that the number of infections will rise to about 300,000 and deaths to about 110,000.
“The worst case scenario” would see the virus spread by 65 per cent and lead to the death of millions of people and the worsening of the community’s health.
The Iranian health ministry announced earlier that the coronavirus death toll has reached more than 900 and the number of infected persons is now 16,169.
