Kanpur: The National Institute of Disaster Management and the SUTRA model of IIT-K claimed that the Odisha may report only around 2,000 cases given the current scenario of vaccination.
Deputy Director of IIT-Kanpur Prof Manindra Agrawal said that Odisha has vaccinated more people than the national average.
If the current pace of vaccination continues and all restrictions are lifted, the cases are likely to expand gradually in September and October respectively.
In view of mathematical model, Odisha may see 2,000 cases a day in the worst case scenario. If the government goes for temporary lockdown, the situation will be like the thick-tail scenario," he told.
The SUTRA-Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach model prepared by Agrawal along with integrated Defence staff M Kanti kar and Prof M Vidyasagar of IIT-Hyderabad explicitly said that there would be large numbers of undetected asymptomatic patients.
"As per the recent national survey, the sero-prevalence in Odisha is around 68 per cent, which is quite good. If the third wave hits the State as projected, the impact will remain till December and then decline gradually if there is no immune-escape variant," he said.
If any new variant emerges and it is found 50 per cent more infectious than the current delta variant, Prof Agrawal said, it will impact the size of the wave.
Responding to the IIT-Kanpur projection, the State health authorities said this can also be a scenario if no new variant surfaces.
Meanwhile, taking a U-turn from his earlier comment on the third wave projection, Director of Medical Education and Training Dr CBK Mohanty said the third wave will not be as intense as the second wave.
"In case of the third wave, Dr Mohanty made it clear, that its impact might not be identical with that of the second wave."
