WASHINGTON, Aug. 31 (Xinhua) -- Three candidates stand as the front runners in the race to see which Democrat will face off against U.S. President Donald Trump in the 2020 elections. But it remains early, and each faces a number of bear traps and fish hooks that could drag them down.
The pool of Democrats vying for the nomination is one of the largest in recent memory, with 10 candidates itching to take on Trump in November of next year -- cut from twice that number just days ago. In the lead is former Vice President Joe Biden, followed by Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
"It's early enough that there are a number of candidates who could join them if they get a few breaks and the current top three have some stumbles," Christopher Galdieri, assistant professor at Saint Anselm College, told Xinhua.
Sen. Kamala Harris, an African American woman, is at the top of the list of those who could conceivably overtake the current top three, followed by Pete Buttigieg, mayor of a town in the U.S. state of Indiana, Galdieri noted.
Indeed, the top three candidates have a number of hurdles to overcome. For Biden, perhaps his biggest problem is the fact that he is in his mid-70s. Many younger Democratic voters would prefer a younger candidate and a fresher face, rather than someone who already spent eight years in the White House.
Biden is also particularly prone to gaffes, which appear to be catching up with him, as a number of news outlets have highlighted a few tall tales he told last week.
One, about being shot at in Iraq, turned out not to be true, as was another embellishment, that he marched in the U.S. Civil Rights Movement -- an iconic movement in American history to promote equal rights for African Americans. That story also turned out to be untrue, reported U.S. media.
Biden's relationship with the truth and frequent public gaffes could hurt him at the ballot box.
Moreover, many believe Biden lacks the ability to inspire, which endeared former President Barack Obama to his supporters. Those who support Biden do so because of his policies and the fact that he could, they believe, unseat Trump.
But many believed that in the United States, it is personality, not policies, that wins elections.
At the same time, many believe that Biden is the only Democratic candidate with a chance of beating Trump in 2020. And some experts believe that factor alone will cause voters to cast their ballots for him in the Democratic primaries.
Indeed, critics describe runner-ups Sanders and Warren as "unelectable." Sanders is pushing a green energy plan that some U.S. media have dismissed as laughable.
The plan would cost 16 trillion U.S. dollars, and entirely end the use of fossil fuels. It has been called a "fantasy" by some U.S. media. Sanders has also indicated the possibility of criminal prosecution of oil, gas and coal executives. The plan has been dismissed as simply not serious.
For her part, Warren has espoused policies such as a wealth tax and universal child care, which critics said are admirable but unworkable.
Virtually all the Democratic candidates have pushed for increased taxes on the wealthy, such as taxing their assets instead of just their incomes.
Interestingly, some analysts hold that if either Sanders or Warren slip in the polls, the other will surge ahead of Biden.
"As long as Sanders and Warren both are in the race, they will split the progressive vote and help Biden hold his lead. If one of them falls back, that would allow the other progressive to move forward and overtake Biden," Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West told Xinhua.
Experts differ on what a Biden nomination would mean in terms of ideology. Some argue that he would be pulled toward the left by the rising tide of the party's left wing, while others believe he would remain moderate. Others believe the truth is somewhere in the middle.
Galdieri said that if Biden becomes the nominee, "he'll want to take steps to show that the more liberal folks in the party will be part of the administration. He can do that with his VP choice and with the policy commitments he makes as the nominee, and by securing the support of the more liberal candidates in the race."
West said that, to get the nomination, Biden would not have to take a hard left turn.
"There is no reason for Biden to shift substantially to the left because he will never pry many votes away from the really progressive candidates," West said.
"It is better for him to stay in his moderate lane and have the progressives divide that part of the political terrain," West said.
