MOSCOW, July 27. /TASS/: Putin holds first meetings with guests of Russia-Africa Summit; Kiev asks NATO to overturn Russia’s ban on maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports; and EU may introduce yet more sanctions against Russia before year-end. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Putin holds first meetings with guests of Russia-Africa Summit
Today is the first day of the second Russia-Africa Summit in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. On July 26, on the eve of the event, Russian President Vladimir Putin held meetings with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, BRICS New Development Bank President Dilma Rousseff and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Vedomosti writes.
In Ethiopia, demonstrations are spreading with farmers demanding access to mineral fertilizers, said Maxim Shepovalenko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. This easily explains why the Ethiopian prime minister is interested in contact with such a major fertilizer supplier as Russia, even despite pressure from Western countries, Shepovalenko noted.
Despite its food security issues, Ethiopia is an industrializing nation with a rapidly developing economy. There are prospects for expanded defense cooperation. In addition, Ethiopia’s middle class is growing and financial technologies are developing, so Russia-Ethiopia relations cannot be limited to fertilizer supplies alone, the expert emphasized.
As for BRICS Bank President Rousseff, a former Brazilian head of state, her meeting with Putin very likely focused on plans to introduce the BRICS group’s single currency as work on the project already involves a number of African countries, Rakhimbek Bobokhonov, researcher at the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for African Studies, pointed out.
As regards Egypt, it is Moscow’s key partner in Africa. The north African country purchases large amounts of grain from Russia, is boosting its defense cooperation with Moscow, and is the site of Russia’s first project to build a nuclear power plant in Africa. Bobokhonov believes that, with the demise of the grain deal, Moscow and Cairo will develop new logistics routes for grain supplies, ensuring that grain trading is no longer dependent on UK and US insurance companies. Regarding Ethiopia, a major regional power, the agenda for Russian-Ethiopian discussions could cover a range of issues from food supplies and humanitarian endeavors to expanded opportunities for cooperation, including in the nuclear energy sector, Bobokhonov added.
Vedomosti: Kiev asks NATO to overturn Russia’s ban on maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports
The new NATO-Ukraine Council held a closed-door meeting in Brussels on July 26 to discuss the Black Sea situation. The meeting had been requested by Ukraine. NATO later released a brief statement, vowing to step up reconnaissance in the region, Vedomosti notes.
Tensions around grain supplies via the Black Sea flared up after Russia refused to agree to a further extension of the grain deal on July 17. The Russian Defense Ministry said that all ships bound for Ukraine’s Black Sea ports would be deemed potential carriers of military cargo starting on July 20. In response, Kiev threatened to sink vessels heading to Russian ports via the Black Sea. The Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes on port infrastructure facilities in Odessa and other Ukrainian ports.
Attempts to militarize the Black Sea at the expense of third countries is one of Ukraine’s policy goals in the wake of the grain deal’s demise, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, noted. However, the deployment of NATO naval forces would mean a direct conflict with Russia. The alliance cannot take such a step, so Kiev’s calls regarding the need for the presence of NATO ships in the Black Sea will remain at the purely declamatory level of slogans. According to the expert, while NATO is already providing comprehensive support to Ukraine, the North Atlantic Alliance will not commit to a direct confrontation with Russia in the Black Sea.
The NATO-Ukraine Council was established at the Vilnius Summit as a sort of consolation prize to compensate Kiev for not being granted NATO membership. It is a purely consultative body without any authority to make decisions, said Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine department at the Institute of CIS Countries. Kiev has already requested that NATO ships provide protective escorts for its vessels along the grain corridor in order to be able to continue implementing the Black Sea initiative without Russia. However, the Black Sea littoral states in NATO - Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria - will not take part in such a mission. Bucharest and Sofia simply do not have enough vessels in their respective fleets, while Ankara continues to adhere to the principle of non-intervention in the conflict, Skorikov explained. As for the US and Great Britain, they do not have the right to maintain a long-term presence in the Black Sea under the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the [Turkish] Straits, and Turkey has no intention of handing over the keys to the Bosporus and the Dardanelles to them. This is why the Ukrainian leadership will have to content themselves with merely dreaming about NATO escorts for grain convoys in the Black Sea, Skorikov concluded.
Izvestia: EU may impose yet more sanctions on Russia before year-end
The European Union may pass yet another package of sanctions on Russia before the end of 2023, an EU foreign policy official told Izvestia. The bloc is already working on its 12th set of restrictive measures. Pressure on Russia will inevitably mount as, apart from weapons supplies to Kiev, sanctions are virtually the sole avenue Brussels has to show support for Ukraine, several members of the European Parliament (MEP) noted in conversations with Izvestia.
The adoption of another package of sanctions against Russia is just a matter of time, French MEP Thierry Mariani pointed out. He also confirmed that the 12th package may be approved before the end of the year. According to the veteran politician, the Europeans realize that these measures are insufficiently effective and thus they are largely for show, a way of demonstrating solidarity with Kiev. Meanwhile, sending munitions and more military gear to Ukraine is becoming increasingly difficult for Western countries, Mariani added.
The EU has managed to approve only two packages of sanctions in the past six months, while it had approved as many as nine packages in just ten months of 2022. The process of coordinating positions has clearly become more complicated. Brussels does not currently have a clear understanding of what the new sanctions should be, German MEP Gunnar Beck told the newspaper. According to him, European politicians are waiting for the outcome of ongoing military operations in Ukraine.
Experts also cannot clearly envision what items might be included in a potential new package of sanctions. Galina Sorokina, professor in the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management, did not rule out that the EU may eventually ban Russian grain imports.
Russian International Affairs Council Director General Ivan Timofeyev believes that Moscow should prepare for a gradual tightening of sanctions. "This is what our authorities are doing. Even before the start of the special military operation, the financial sector did a lot to protect the system," the expert stressed. Despite the sanctions imposed last year, the Russian economy demonstrated resilience and withstood the blow from massive sanctions precisely because preparations had been made for the worst-case scenario, the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Moldova to continue pursuing anti-Russian foreign policy
Moldova will not fully withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) because there are a number of agreements that Chisinau is unwilling to abandon even under the current government, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. However, Chisinau will continue to pursue its anti-Russian foreign policy in a bid to please Western countries. A decree denouncing the Convention on the CIS Inter-Parliamentary Assembly, signed in 1995, was published on July 26. In addition, Moldova decided to reduce the number of Russian embassy staff members.
Higher School of Economics (HSE University) expert Andrey Suzdaltsev pointed out that, "it is all being done as part of President Maia Sandu’s overall strategy." "The idea is that the country will join the European Union and NATO. This is why she will gradually wind down all possible ties between Moldova and Russia," the expert explained. "It will not deal a blow to the CIS. The Inter-Parliamentary Assembly incident is the most harmless case. It’s about meeting with people, getting to know them and exchanging opinions, and not much else. However, almost all the countries that ‘left’ the commonwealth - it’s only Georgia and Ukraine that have done so thus far - have never actually definitively completed the withdrawal process. In fact, it’s virtually impossible to completely pull out of the CIS because there are a number of agreements that cannot be rejected, including those on transit and visa waivers. Even the functioning of Moldova’s relationship with Ukraine is grounded in CIS agreements. Ukraine, as well, has only partially left the commonwealth," Suzdaltsev noted. "As for the expulsion of diplomats, it will affect the intensity of contacts. Moreover, Moldovan nationals in Russia will face problems," he added.
Moldovan political scientist Vladimir Bukarsky believes that, "Sandu is eager to please her patrons from the collective West and, most importantly, her closest partners from Ukraine."
Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, warned that, "Moldova may be expected to fully leave the CIS as the special military operation continues." "However, they will try to remain part of those mechanisms that they have a need for. That is, they will choose [to keep] a couple of CIS documents they view as beneficial," the analyst added.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Northern Sea Route to help ease sanctions hit on Russian oil exports
Year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will minimize the effect of sanctions on Russian oil exports. This concerns not only oil deliveries from the Arctic via northern ports, but also from the Baltic region. The first oil tankers have already embarked on the route, bound for China from the Gulf of Finland ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga via the North Sea and the Arctic, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
According to Armen Danielyan, senior partner at the Delovoy Profil group, China has shown a high degree of interest in the implementation of joint projects aimed at expanding the use of the Northern Sea Route. This year, China’s NewNew Shipping Line will send five ice-class vessels to transport goods along the NSR.
Yakov and Partners expert Gennady Masakov pointed out that the use of the Northern Sea Route will not only reduce delivery times for eastbound cargo by about 30% but will also bring down the cost of vessel chartering, which will definitely have a positive impact on the competitiveness of Russian oil.
Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov concurred with that view. The distance between St. Petersburg and Vladivostok via the NRS is about 14,000 kilometers, while it is more than 23,000 kilometers via the Suez Canal, he specified. The shorter route will allow companies to save on logistics, particularly on fuel, crew salaries and vessel chartering. And, most importantly, they will not have to face sanctions risks related to vessel insurance. As for shipments to China, using the NSR will be profitable even with the additional costs of icebreaker freight.
Finam analyst Andrey Maslov believes that Russia does not yet have enough icebreakers to ensure year-round navigation, and port infrastructure facilities are not ready. However, even with these problems in mind, the launch of oil deliveries from Baltic ports along the Northern Sea Route is an important milestone. The route is not controlled by sanctions-imposing countries. Here, Russia is its own boss and all future achievements will be riding on its own efforts.
